Refereed Journal Papers

Explore a selection of published, peer-reviewed journal papers by Reidar B. Bratvold. Each represents a significant contribution to the field and reflects the rigorous research and academic dedication that define his work.

2025

A Machine Learning-Assisted Decision-Making Methodology Based on Simplex Weight Generation for Non-Dominated Alternative Selection

de Moraes. M.B., Coelho. G.P. and Bratvold. R.B.

Decision Analysis.

Geosteering Robot Powered by Multiple Probabilistic Interpretation and Artificial Intelligence: Benchmarking Against Human Experts

Muhammad. R.B., Cheraghi. Y., Alyaev. S., Srivastava. A. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Journal, 1-15.

2024

Reservoir Production Management With Bayesian Optimization: Achieving Robust Results in a Fraction of the Time

Hong. A.J.

SPE Journal

High-precision geosteering via reinforcement learning and particle filters

Muhammad. R.B., Srivastava. A., Alyaev. S. and Bratvold. R.B.

arXiv preprint.

Sequential drilling decisions based on explicit joint probability distribution of spatially distributed subsurface data: Modeling and value creation propositions

Morosov. A.L. and Bratvold. R.B.

Analyzing Expert Decision-Making in Geosteering: Statistical Insights from a Large-Scale Controlled Experiment

Cheraghi. Y., Alyaev. S., Bratvold. R.B., Hong. A.J., Kuvaev. I., Clark. S. and Zhuravlev. A.

Available at SSRN 4951357.

Is Reinforcement Learning Good at American Option Valuation?

Kor. P., Bratvold. R.B. and Hong. A.J.

Algorithms, 17(9), 400.

Strategic geosteering workflow with uncertainty quantification and deep learning: Initial test on the Goliat Field data

Rammay. M.H., Alyaev. S., Larsen. D.S., Bratvold. R.B. and Saint. C.

Geophysics, 89(6), D301-D314

2023

Field Features Do Not Explain Greenfield Production Forecasting Bias

Nesvold. E.

SPE Journal

A supplier selection model using triangular fuzzy-grey numbers

Zakeri. S., Konstantas. D., Bratvold. R.B. and Pamucar. D.

IEEE Access.

Optimal sequential decision-making in geosteering: A reinforcement learning approach

Muhammad. R.B., Alyaev. S. and Bratvold. R.B.

arXiv preprint.

An exposition of least square Monte Carlo approach for real options valuation

Ahmadi. R. and Bratvold. R.B.

Geoenergy Science and Engineering.

2022

Debiasing probabilistic oil production forecasts

Nesvold. E. and Bratvold. R.B.

Energy. Elsevier.

Appraisal campaign selection based on the maximum value of sequential information

Morosov. A.L. and Bratvold. R.B.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 208, 109473.

I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong

Kjosavik. S.R. and Bratvold. R.B.

Scandinavian Journal of Primary Health Care. Taylor & Francis.

Bayesian deep decline curve analysis: A new approach for well oil production modeling and forecasting

Tadjer. A., Hong. A.J. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering.

2021

Drilling-Campaign Optimization Using Sequential Information and Policy Analytics

Morosov. A.L. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Journal, 1-17.

Probability elicitation using geostatistics in hydrocarbon exploration

Morosov. A.L. and Bratvold. R.B.

Computational Geosciences, 1-22.

Machine learning based decline curve analysis for short-term oil production forecast

Tadjer. A., Hong. A.J. and Bratvold. R.B.

Energy Exploration & Exploitation. doi:10.1177/01445987211011784

Managing Uncertainty in Geological CO2 Storage Using Bayesian Evidential Learning

Tadjer. A. and Bratvold. R.B.

Energies 2021, 14, 1557.

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Project Valuation: Price Forecasts Bound to Discount Rates

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Decision Analysis.

Efficient Dimensionality Reduction Methods in Reservoir History Matching

Tadjer. A., Bratvold. R.B. and Hanea. R.G.

Energies 2021, 14, 3137. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113137

Application of machine learning to assess the value of information in polymer flooding

Tadjer. A., Bratvold. R.B., Hong. A.J. and Hanea. R.G.

Petroleum Research, 2021

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2020

Production Forecasting: Optimistic and Overconfident - Over and Over Again

Bratvold. R.B., Petutschnig. D., Bickel. J.E. and Mohus. E

Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:10.2118/195914-PA

Project Economics in the Big-Bets Industry: The Integrated Valuation in Practice

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 197:108095.

Sequential Exploration: Valuation with Geological Dependencies and Uncertain Oil Prices

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:10.2118/202470-PA

The two-factor price process in optimal sequential exploration

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Journal of the Operational Research Society.

2019

Integrating model uncertainty in probabilistic decline-curve analysis for unconventional-oil-production forecasting

Hong. A.J.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering

A decision support system for multi-target geosteering

Alyaev. S., Suter. E., Bratvold. R.B., Hong. A.J., Luo. X. and Fossum. K.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering.

The Option Value of Refracturing Oil Wells: Implementation in a Binomial Lattice

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Journal.

Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Mineral Economics.

2018

Value-of-information for model parameter updating through history matching

Hong. A.J., Bratvold. R.B., Thomas. P. and Hanea. R.G.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 165 (2018) 253–268 .

Fast Analysis of Optimal IOR Switch Time Using a Two-Factor Production Model and Least-Squares Monte Carlo Algorithm

Hong. A.J., Bratvold. R.B. and Lake. L.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering.

Drill and Learn: A decision making workflow to quantify Value of Learning

Hanea. R.G., Casanova. P., Hustoft. L., Bratvold. R.B., Leeuwenburgh. O., Nair. R., Hewson. C. and Fonseca

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering.

Sequential Geosteering Decisions for Optimization of Real-Time Well Placement

Kullawan. K., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 165(2), 90–104.

2017

Robust Production Optimization with Capacitance-Resistance Model as Precursor

Hong. A.J., Bratvold. R.B. and Nævdal. G.

Submitted to Computational Geosciences (provisionally accepted,under revision).

The Net-Present-Value Paradox: Criticized by Many, Applied by All

Willigers. B.J.A., Jones. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Economics & Management. SPE-187937-PA.

Computational Geosciences online on 24 June 2017

Hong. A.J., Bratvold. R.B. and Nævdal. G.

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2016

Maximising the Value of Unconventional Reservoirs by Choosing the Optimal Appraisal Strategy

Willigers. B.J.A., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering-Formation Evaluation

Value Creation with Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Geosteering Operations

Kullawan. K., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

International Journal of Petroleum Technology 3 (01): 15-31.

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Hot spot hunting: Optimising the staged development of shale plays

Willigers. B.J.A., Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering

Appraising unconventional resources: How many wells to drill and where to place them?

Willigers. B.J.A., Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering-Formation Evaluation 19, 340-349

Decision-Oriented Geosteering and the Value of Look-Ahead Information: A Case-Based Study

Kanokwan, Kullawan. K. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Journal (2016)

2015

Sequential Exploration with Geological Dependencies and Uncertainty in Oil Prices

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

Paper submitted for publication in SPE Economics & Management.

Value Creation with Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Geosteering Operations 2015

Kullawan. K., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

Paper submitted for publication in the Journal of Petrol. Science and Engineering.

2014

Combining Geostatistics With Bayesian Updating To Continually Optimize Drilling Strategy in Shale-Gas Plays

Willigers. B.J.A., Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:10.2118/164816-PA

A Decision Analytic Approach to Geosteering Operations

Kullawan. K., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:10.2118/167433-PA

The Risk of Using Risk Matrices

Thomas. P., Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

SPE Econ & Mgmt 6 (2): 56-66

2013

Sell Spot or Sell Forward? Analysis of Oil Trading Decisions Using the Two-Factor Price Model and Simulation

Bratvold. R.B. and Jafarizadeh. B.

SPE Econ & Mgmt 5 (3): 80-88

2012

Two Factor Oil Price Model and Real Option Valuation: An Example of Oil Field Abandonment

Jafarizadeh. B. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Econ & Mgmt 4 (3): 158-170

2011

Valuation of Swing Contracts by Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation

Willigers. B.J.A., Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Econ & Mgmt 3 (4): 215-225. SPE-133044-PA.

Probabilistic Modeling for Decision Support in Integrated Operations

Bratvold. R.B. and Giese. M.

SPE Econ & Mgmt 3 (3): 173-185. SPE-127761-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/127761-PA

Game Theory in the Oil and Gas Industry

Bratvold. R.B. and Koch. F.

SPE TWA 7 (1): 18-20

2010

Uncertainty and preferences in a joint E&P development program analyzed in a game theoretic framework

Willigers. B.J.A., Hausken. K. and Bratvold. R.B.

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 74, 1-2, 88-98

2009

A Game Theoretic Approach to Conflicting and Evolving Stakeholder Preferences in the E&P Industry

Willigers. B.J.A., Bratvold. R.B. and Hausken. K.

SPE Economics & Management

Valuing Oil and Gas Options by Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation

Willigers. B.J.A. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Projects, Facilities & Construction

Value of Information: The Past, Present, and Future

Bratvold. R.B. and Bickel. J.E.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering, August 2009

Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One?

Bratvold. R.B. and Begg. S.H.

SPE TWA 5 (2): 21-23

2008

Decision Making in the Oil & Gas Industry: From Blissful Ignorance to Uncertainty - Induced Confusion

Bickel. J.E. and Bratvold. R.B.

ENERGY EXPLORATION & EXPLOITATION 26(5), 311-325

I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong: A new approach to decision making in the petroleum exploration and production industry

Bratvold. R.B. and Begg. S.H.

AAPG Bulletin 92(10), 1373–1392

2007

Copulas: A New Technique to Model Dependence in Petroleum Decision Making

Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

J. Pet. Sci. Eng. 57(1-2), 195-208

2006

Investment Decisions, Systems Approach vs. Sequential Approach: Do Functional Dependencies And Interactions Matter?

Al-Harthy. M., Khurana. A., Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

., Begg. S.H., Bratvold. R.B.,

Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) Journal 46(1), 511 - 524

2004

The Value of Flexibility

Begg. S.H. and Bratvold. R.B.

Southern China Oil & Gas Journal 17(4)

1995

STORM: Integrated 3D Stochastic Reservoir Modeling Tool for Geologists and Reservoir Engineers

Bratvold. R.B., Holden. L., Svanes. T. and Tyler. K.

SPE Computer Applications 7(3), 58 – 68

1994

Effects of Propagating Fractures on Pressure-Transient Injection and Falloff Data

Larsen. L. and Bratvold. R.B.

SPE Formation Evaluation

1990

Analysis of Pressure Falloff Tests Following Cold Water Injection

Bratvold. R.B. and Horne. R.N.

SPE Formation Evaluation September, 203 - 302

1987

Semilog Analysis of Gas Well Drawdown and Buildup Data

Reynolds. A.C., Bratvold. R.B. and Ding. W.

SPE Formation Evaluation December, 657 - 670